South Korea’s export growth likely slowed for the fourth consecutive month in November, reaching its weakest level in 14 months due to declining demand in the United States amid uncertainty over tariff policies, according to a Reuters poll on Thursday.
Exports from Asia’s fourth-largest economy are projected to have increased by 2.8% in November compared to a year earlier, down from October’s 4.6% rise, based on the median forecast of 14 economists surveyed.
While this would mark the 14th consecutive month of annual export growth, it would also be the smallest year-on-year increase during the streak, which had previously been driven by strong U.S. demand, particularly for semiconductors used in AI chipsets.
“Non-semiconductor exports, including automobile sales to the United States, are weakening, and IT demand is expected to decline gradually,” said Chun Kyu-yeon, an economist at Hana Securities. “The uncertainty surrounding a potential second Trump presidency is creating a challenging environment for domestic manufacturers,” Chun added.
U.S. President-elect Donald Trump recently pledged to impose significant tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada, which could negatively impact South Korean exporters.
In the first 20 days of November, exports rose by 5.8%, boosted by strong chip sales, though automobile shipments fell. Exports to the U.S. dropped 2.5%, marking the first decline since July 2023, while shipments to China increased by 3.5%.
As the first major exporting economy to release trade data monthly, South Korea is set to announce its November trade figures on Sunday, December 1, at 9 a.m.
“The resilience of the semiconductor sector is being overshadowed by weakness in other industries,” said Oh Suk-tae, an economist at Société Générale. “While weak exports pose challenges for economic growth, the rebound in semiconductors provides some relief.”
Lee Seung-hoon, an economist at Meritz Securities, emphasized the importance of a recovery in U.S. manufacturing activity for broader strength in South Korea’s export sectors.
The survey also projected a modest 0.4% rise in imports for November, following a 1.7% increase in October. The trade balance is estimated to show a surplus of $5.15 billion, up from $3.15 billion in the previous month.
