The appointment of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as the new Secretary of Health and Human Services (HHS), pending Senate confirmation, is poised to have significant implications for the U.S. food industry.
Kennedy’s vocal criticism of “Big Food” and his push to eliminate harmful chemicals from the American food supply signal a potential shift toward stricter regulations. His proposal to declare a national emergency for chronic disease highlights an aggressive stance that could lead to impactful changes for packaged food companies.
One key area of concern is school lunch programs, which might face tougher standards on sugar, sodium, and trans fats. While trans fats have largely been reduced to minimal levels, products like sugary cereals, processed meats, soups, and yogurt could come under scrutiny, according to Bernstein analysts. However, they note that defining “processed foods” remains a challenge, and the industry has historically adapted to stricter nutrition guidelines with incremental changes.
Kennedy is also advocating for a reduction in synthetic food dyes such as Red 40 and Yellow 5, which are already restricted in Europe. This could increase regulatory pressure on companies like PepsiCo WK Kellogg Co., General Mills and Kraft Heinz whose products often use these additives.
Additionally, Kennedy has expressed interest in limiting the use of Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) benefits for purchasing processed foods and sugary drinks. A USDA study revealed that 10% of SNAP funds are spent on sweetened beverages, making them a potential target. However, Bernstein analysts caution that defining which foods should be excluded from SNAP coverage could prove challenging.
Broader regulatory changes could include initiatives to promote healthier eating, inspired by international models such as Europe’s sugar taxes and the UK’s High Fat, Sugar, and Salt (HFSS) initiative.
Enhanced front-of-pack labeling may also be introduced, increasing consumer awareness and potentially reducing demand for highly processed foods.
Kennedy’s appointment coincides with ongoing inflationary pressures on the food supply chain, compounded by labor shortages and potential immigration restrictions. Stricter policies on farm subsidies could further raise food prices while encouraging healthier crop production, reshaping the competitive landscape for processed food manufacturers.
Even if legislative changes remain limited, increased media attention on Kennedy’s “Making America Healthy Again” agenda could shift public perception, much like past debates on GMO labeling. These discussions significantly influenced consumer behavior, sparking interest in issues such as artificial flavors, synthetic colors, and the use of hormones and antibiotics in meat and dairy. The result was reduced demand for heavily processed foods and a growing preference for cleaner-label brands.
Analysts speculate whether a similar shift could occur this time. However, they warn that Kennedy’s initiatives may encounter resistance, particularly among Trump voters who could view them as overreach into personal food choices. Such opposition could limit the impact of these efforts and potentially shorten Kennedy’s tenure as HHS Secretary.
