Singapore’s economy is projected to grow by 3.6% in 2024, up from an earlier forecast of 2.6%, according to a survey by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) released on Wednesday. Monetary policy settings are expected to remain unchanged at the upcoming January review.
The median forecast from 25 economists surveyed by MAS anticipates 3.1% growth in the fourth quarter of 2024 and a 2.6% expansion for the whole of 2025.
In November, the Ministry of Trade and Industry raised its 2024 GDP growth forecast to 3.5%, up from the earlier range of 2.0% to 3.0%, following a stronger-than-expected 5.4% growth in the third quarter.
Most surveyed economists predict MAS will maintain its current monetary policy through its quarterly reviews in January, April, and July. The central bank last adjusted its policy in October 2022, marking its fifth consecutive tightening, and has kept the settings unchanged since, including in October 2023 as growth improved and inflation eased.
Only 33% of respondents expect a policy loosening in January through a reduction in the slope of the Singapore dollar nominal effective exchange rate (S$NEER), down from 50% in September’s survey.
The MAS manages monetary policy by setting the trajectory of the S$NEER, influencing the strength of the local currency against those of major trading partners.
Headline inflation for 2024 is now forecast at 2.5%, a slight decrease from the 2.6% projected in September. Core inflation expectations for 2024 have also edged down to 2.8% from the previous 2.9%. Core inflation for the final quarter of this year is projected at 2.1%, according to the survey.
In October, core inflation eased to 2.1% year-on-year, marking the smallest increase in nearly three years.
Economists surveyed anticipate both headline and core inflation in 2025 to fall within the range of 1.5% to 1.9%.
